Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 218.843715 270.699706 336.858226 429.470669 559.177421 7.399474e+02 1.021753e+03
2025-02-02 167.646281 228.729420 318.352308 466.778751 723.089616 1.186219e+03 2.204748e+03
2025-02-09 138.514499 201.767525 303.983328 495.694568 887.632619 1.782413e+03 4.616422e+03
2025-02-16 118.385678 180.942123 289.662005 514.735862 1045.962877 2.557366e+03 9.763978e+03
2025-02-23 103.395516 164.101184 275.925860 527.297364 1201.074557 3.576931e+03 2.202204e+04
2025-03-02 89.495407 145.860664 254.102796 512.692570 1277.845089 4.514706e+03 4.663390e+04
2025-03-09 78.685881 131.083170 235.265179 497.487228 1345.039315 5.620554e+03 1.112222e+05
2025-03-16 69.489105 117.739921 216.318484 474.986946 1374.412127 6.680956e+03 2.882539e+05
2025-03-23 67.204771 117.366495 225.006149 530.164820 1753.476635 1.189280e+04 1.909617e+07
2025-03-30 62.289850 110.849317 218.325464 538.702440 1954.313210 1.725465e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 58.943511 107.054474 217.207985 564.583994 2285.540823 2.885943e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 54.293243 99.812172 206.173634 553.371298 2403.898455 3.946804e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 53.263786 100.558408 216.167016 624.358885 3217.364094 1.155768e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 51.598242 99.641236 221.736473 684.082524 4161.178524 4.443869e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 49.587582 97.608312 223.782759 732.027255 5218.158882 3.142926e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 47.290784 94.554268 222.204579 764.032244 6293.071133 2.070921e+08 NaN
2025-05-18 44.949396 91.071673 218.606087 785.292305 7401.909941 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 41.870489 85.386448 207.119077 760.571058 7695.072368 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 39.094815 80.179346 196.285134 734.971355 7932.385772 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 36.365541 74.824511 184.147237 697.350152 7819.869921 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 36.225652 76.093823 193.750238 790.158940 11580.708103 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 34.731690 73.647254 190.492865 804.683022 13542.419845 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 33.769508 72.509441 191.544656 848.974061 17496.469819 NaN NaN